Azuka Onwuka , azonwuka@yahoo.com
0809-8727-263 (sms only)
0809-8727-263 (sms only)
When I look at happenings in Nigeria, I
ask myself: Does President Muhammadu Buhari sleep peacefully? Is he
happy to be the President of Nigeria at a time like this?
We have never had a smooth ride as a
nation. At every period in our history we have always been battling with
one problem or the other. But there is something peculiar with the
situation now.
Excluding the Civil War, nothing has
been as destructive and bloody as the Boko Haram insurgency. It is
estimated that about 20,000 have been killed since the sect began its
campaign of extremism in 2010. But in spite of that, the economy of
Nigeria was virtually unscathed because Boko Haram’s activities were
concentrated majorly in the North-East, although on a number of
occasions they succeeded in attacking parts of the Federal Capital City,
Abuja. Therefore, they did not disrupt the oil-producing capacity of
the nation in the South-South, the operations of the big businesses in
Lagos, and the running of government in Abuja. Even though there is a
remarkable reduction in the activities of Boko Haram due to the military
campaign against them, there are still occasional bomb attacks in the
North-East.
During the tenures of Chief Olusegun
Obasanjo and Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, there were disruptive
activities by the Niger Delta militants, O’odua People’s Congress, and
Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra, but
somehow the economy was still looking upwards. The international oil
price was low – especially during Obasanjo’s tenure – sometimes even
lower than $20 per barrel. However, the return of democracy in 1999
brought back the middle class because the economy came alive. Once more,
individuals began to buy brand-new cars and other products after being
forced into buying second-hand goods by the economic crunch that started
in the mid 1980s. Construction of houses began to boom again.
However, the situation seems scary from
many angles at the moment. Last week the National Bureau of Statistics
announced that the Gross Domestic Product of Nigeria contracted by 0.36
per cent in the first quarter, with every indication that Nigeria was
headed for recession. One could remember that in 2008 when financial
meltdown hit most Western economies, the Nigerian economy was not
affected. The NBS figures on employment also showed that within the
first quarter of 2016 period, the number of unemployed people in the
labour force rose by about 1.5 million.
Similarly, recently NBS announced that
inflation had shot up to 13.7 percent, after hitting the double digit of
11.4 percent in February: the first in many years.
Last week too, the Minister of State for
Petroleum Resources, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, said that oil production had
dropped from 2.2 million barrels a day to 1.4 million barrels due to
pipeline vandalism. With last week’s announcement of another militant
group called Red Egbesu Water Lions, there are fears that this figure
may further go down.
Similarly, the exchange rate of the
dollar against the naira has been shooting up on the parallel market.
Even though the government has pegged the official rate of the dollar to
between N197 and N199, it is virtually impossible to get at that rate
while doing any international transaction.
Consequently figures from the market are
scary too. A bag of rice sells for as high as N18,000 as against N8,000
last year, while a basket of tomatoes that sold for N5,000 in January
now sells for as high as N35,000. Petrol that was selling for N86.50 per
litre also went up to N145 per litre two weeks ago following the
government announcement of removal of subsidy from petrol. The same has
happened to all goods and services. Sadly the income of individuals has
not risen.
What has made this situation gloomy is
that currently the nation is facing both economic difficulties and
ethnic insurgencies. The return of insurgency in the Niger Delta has
made a bad situation worse, given that the bulk of the crude oil that
sustains the national economy comes from there. Even though the federal
government has warned that it would crush the militants, it is obvious
that like many people, including the British Foreign Minister, Mr Philip
Hammond, have advised, the use of force would cause more harm than
good.
Buhari’s presidency inherited some of
these situations, but there are some that he instigated overtly or
covertly. Buhari was the first Nigerian president that came into office
without the opposition screaming blue murder. Even though many members
of the Peoples Democratic Party were not happy that they lost power, the
conciliatory stance of the erstwhile president, Dr Goodluck Jonathan,
prevented them from causing any problems for Buhari as he was
inaugurated on May 29, 2015. Even the commonest tool that parties use,
which is challenging the election in court, was discouraged by Jonathan.
Everybody adopted a wait-and-see stance. Buhari’s inauguration speech
which emphasised that he belonged to nobody but to everybody gave hope
that he was coming in as an impartial judge to right the wrongs of the
past years.
With Nigeria surviving a divisive
election, the new president was expected to reach out to all parts of
the federation and unite them under his leadership. But when he began
making his appointments, it became obvious that his actions were
different from his words. In spite of the complaints from even some
groups and individuals from the North that Buhari’s appointments were
skewed too heavily in favour of the North, he kept on with the trend as
if the feelings of others did not matter.
His comments about those who gave him 97
percent votes and those who gave him 5 percent votes did not portray
him as one who wanted to unite the nation behind his leadership.
The fight against corruption by Buhari
has also been seen as selective. Despite the number of petitions written
against some associates and members of Buhari’s government, they have
neither been arrested nor prosecuted. Despite that Buhari said he did
not have enough money to buy his party’s nomination form before the
election, he ran a presidential campaign that matched that of Jonathan
naira for naira. Nobody knows where his campaign organisation got the
huge funds used for that campaign. But while Buhari is probing the PDP
and arresting its members for the money spent on their campaign, Buhari
has been mum on the source of his campaign funds despite the petitions
and complaints on that.
One year into his government, the
wait-and-see period seems to have elapsed. Even though the action of
bursting of pipelines is pure sabotage that should not be tolerated by
any government, using force against the groups may achieve little.
Buhari has lost much time to unite Nigerians, but he can still turn
things around and stem this tide of discontent.
Top on the list of the demands of the
Niger Delta Avengers is the implementation of the 2014 National
Conference report. The more Buhari runs away from this clamour for a
national conference, the more it will trail him wherever he goes like a
shadow. There is no better time to start implementing that conference
report. But if he does not want to implement that report, let him start
his own national conference. Those who say he needs to stabilise the
nation first before a national conference are putting the cart before
the horse. The national conference is what will stabilise the nation.
Talking will not destabilise Nigeria; it is not talking that will
destabilise Nigeria.
Secondly, Buhari is mishandling the
Nigerian economy. It is either he does not listen to expert advice or he
does not have economic experts. The excuse that the economy is doing
badly because of the activities of the past years can only be believed
by those who love fairy tales or fanatical supporters.
Nigeria is not
lacking in pragmatic economic experts. The President should seek their
help and stop the economic descent. He should stop believing that his
own economic ideas can transform Nigeria.
Whether he admits it or not, with the
myriad of problems facing the nation, the President needs help as well
as our prayers, because whatever happens to the nation under his
leadership affects our welfare, security, peace and happiness.
— Twitter @BrandAzuka
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